Weather Update

Weather Update

Good Afternoon All,

A two part weather system threatens to produce a variety of weather impacts for our area Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Here is a preliminary look at possible hazards:

Winter Weather

Snow Tuesday night will change to rain along the coast and to freezing rain inland.  Temperatures are likely to remain below freezing into Wednesday for many interior areas. A first cut would indicate light snow to light freezing rain during Tuesday night for interior portions northwest of the I-95 corridor including Boston's interior northern and western suburbs, the Worcester and Springfield areas, greater Hartford, and northern RI to the north and west of I-295. The Wednesday morning commute may be impacted in these areas. 

The subfreezing temperatures will be slow to erode during Wednesday with occasional light freezing rain or freezing drizzle persisting to Wednesday afternoon in many southern New England interior locations.  In fact, portions of the Connecticut River Valley and the route 2 corridor in northern MA may remain subfreezing until Wednesday evening.

At this time, it does not appear as though the amounts will be large enough to produce tree or wire damage, although portions of northwest MA and the Worcester hills may accrete up to a quarter inch of ice due to the duration of freezing precipitation.
 

Winter Weather Advisories will likely be needed for a large portion of interior southern New England.  We may initially issue for the area of highest confidence in central and west central MA and then expand to additional areas if we gain sufficient confidence.

Heavy Rain/Local Street Flooding Potential

The second part of this week's weather system will likely produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall during Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Isolated locations could receive over 2 inches.  The rainfall will likely come in the form of heavy downpours and may cause localized street and poor drainage flooding. In addition, significant runoff at the same time of a high tide could cause minor flooding near the mouth of the Pawcatuck River in Westerly and along some coastal urban areas such as Fall River.

We may experience notable rises on many area streams and rivers on Thursday, but none are currently projected to overflow their banks other than perhaps near the mouth of the Pawcatuck in southwest RI due to the tidal effects.

Damaging Wind Potential

Strong southerly winds late Wednesday into Thursday morning could cause isolated tree and power line damage.  The time period when the strongest winds could occur would appear to be in a window from 3 AM to 9 AM Thursday.  This time frame may be adjusted as we get closer to the event.

Coastal Flooding Potential

Areas of minor coastal flooding are possible around the time of the Thursday morning high tide along the RI south coast (including Narragansett Bay) and the Bristol County, MA shoreline.  High tide occurs between 9 and 10 AM across most locations in this area. Preliminary estimates indicate a potential storm surge of 2 to 2.5 feet and waves of 10 to 15 feet approaching the exposed south coast. Some erosion is possible along the open south coast of RI and MA, including even the south-facing shorelines of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

We suggest that you continue to monitor later forecasts and statements regarding this two part weather system heading our way.

Bob Thompson


For the latest forecasts and discussions, especially timing and forecast confidence, don't hesitate to contact us via this email address, on NWSChat, or at the following:

National Weather Service - Taunton, MA
445 Myles Standish Blvd
Taunton, MA 02780
508.823.2228
http://www.weather.gov/boston
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