New projections show colleges will continue to pick from fewer high school graduates
By
Scott O’Connell
Telegram & Gazette Staff
Posted Nov 25, 2017 at 6:00 AM
Updated Nov 26, 2017 at 6:26 AM
Colleges in the region that have been waiting
for the shrinking number of local high school graduates to finally
rebound will have to wait even longer, a new state report suggests.
According
to the latest college enrollment trend analysis from the state’s higher
education department, the annual high school graduate count in
Massachusetts, already down over the past few years, will continue to
decline over the next two decades. That revised projection is less
optimistic than earlier reports that estimated the numbers would trend
upwards again after 2025.
“We knew (the
high school graduate population) would be going down,” said the state’s
Commissioner of Higher Education, Carlos Santiago. “The pessimism here
is that we thought there would be a recovery a lot earlier. It’s very
disappointing, but it’s just the reality.”
The
state’s latest enrollment report says that this past year there were
just over 75,000 new high school graduates in the state, a number that
is expected to shrink next year but still hover in the 71,000 to 74,000
range over the next decade. But in 2026 – right around the time earlier
projections forecast the start of a recovery – the number of new
graduates is now expected to fall off even more sharply, dropping to
just under 67,000 by 2031, which would be the lowest amount since 2003.
Officials
at local colleges contacted by the Telegram & Gazette last week
said the latest student population projections did not come as a real
surprise; several said the state’s latest report was reiterating data
that had been circulating previously. Some schools said they also
haven’t seen much negative fallout so far from the leveling off of high
school graduate numbers over the past few years.
The
state university system, for example, which enjoyed a steady increase
in applicants up until around five years ago, when its enrollments
started to plateau, has nearly maintained enrollment since then. Between
2013 and this fall, for instance, Worcester State University’s
enrollment slipped only from 5,556 students to 5,496, according to the
state higher education department’s records, while Fitchburg State
University went from 4,245 to 4,135.
Community
colleges, however, have seen a precipitous decline in students,
although that has a lot to do with the country’s economic rebound since
the start of the decade. In the region, from 2011 to this fall,
Quinsigamond Community College’s enrollment dropped from 9,130 students
to 7,370, and Mount Wachusett Community College’s fell from 4,755 to
3,854, state data shows.
Fall enrollment
data for local private colleges, meanwhile, was not readily available
from most campuses contacted by the Telegram & Gazette. Some, like
Worcester Polytechnic Institute, said they’ve seen flat to modest gains
the last few years, which they expect to continue.
Andrew
Palumbo, WPI’s dean of admissions and financial aid, acknowledged that
the latest demographic data projections means “we’ve sort of climbed the
mountain and reached the peak – now we’re on our way down.”
But WPI, he said, “has been preparing for this
for years,” focusing much of its efforts on trying to bring in more
applicants from groups that have traditionally been less represented in
the sciences, like women and people of color.
“We
want to make sure we’re continuing to break down those barriers,” he
said, noting as an example WPI’s recent grade-school level programming
it offers on its Institute Road campus, the intention of which is to
introduce a new generation of students to the STEM (science, technology,
engineering and math) fields.
In the
public higher education realm, local campuses also see diversifying
their recruiting efforts as a possible counter to the expected decline
in high school graduates – out-of-state and international students and
adult learners are some of the populations they’ll be leaning more on.
They also expressed confidence their evolving degree offerings will
continue to attract applicants – “programs like game design and our
criminal justice police concentration continue to attract high numbers
of applicants, for example, and we are confident that new programs
launching now and in development will help us remain competitive,” said
Matthew Bruun, the director of public relations at FSU.
Student retention will also be an important
goal over the next two decades, according to Ryan Forsythe, WSU’s vice
president for enrollment management, who said officials at the
university “are optimistic we’ll be able to maintain our enrollment.”
But the predicted demographics changes in the state have also motivated
them to undertake a new “large-scale positioning study,” he said, that
will help them get a better understanding of “what the future of
Worcester State looks like” in that more competitive environment.
Community
colleges, meanwhile, are not as beholden to swings in high school
graduate numbers, given they already serve a more diverse population
than their four-year counterparts. Their struggles the past few years
are tied in part to the stabilizing of the local economy, which has
allowed many would-be students to find work or keep their current jobs
without having to go to college.
“I think
that’s always going to be the key determinant for us,” said Luis
Pedraja, the new president at QCC. “I think we’re better positioned to
respond to that decline (in high school graduates).”
Mr.
Pedraja added QCC has been able to weather its ongoing enrollment
contraction. “I don’t see an immediate impact at this time,” he said of
this fall’s numbers specifically.
MWCC communications specialist Sam Bonacci,
meanwhile, pointed to the college’s variety of degree and certificate
programs “designed to meet the wide array of needs in the region, from
traditional college-age students, those returning to school after some
time away, or professionals looking for continuing education,” as a
source of confidence for college officials as they continue to deal with
the declining high school-age demographic.
That
trend is still impacting even community colleges, however, he said –
“we are happy with our (fall enrollment) numbers given the stagnation”
of the local high school graduate population.
While
the community colleges’ continued enrollment decline is “a source of
concern,” Mr. Santiago said, Central Massachusetts’ two campuses at
least “are probably in better standing” than the two-year schools in
some other parts of the state, like Western Massachusetts and the South
Shore.
“They’re adjusting within their resource base” to deal with the
financial impact of their lower student counts, he said of the state’s
community colleges, as well as cooperating more to share facilities. “I
think we’re seeing more of those collaborative efforts.”
In
general, Mr. Santiago added, to get through the next 15 years, the
state’s public higher education system will “need to respond more as a
collective of institutions, rather than 29 separate ones.”
“I
think we’ve been moving in the direction that I think will help us
respond better” to the state’s demographic changes, he said.
Scott O’Connell can be reached at Scott.O’Connell@telegram.com. Follow him on Twitter @ScottOConnellTG
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