State Budget Problems Worsen As April Tax Collections Miss Benchmark
By Matt Murphy, State House News Service
May 04, 2017
State
budget problems worsened considerably Wednesday after cratering April
tax collections widened the revenue gap in this year's budget and called
into question assumptions for next year's spending, setting up a major
test of Gov. Charlie Baker's ability to manage through the near-term
dilemma without unilateral spending cuts or tapping into reserves.
The
growing issue of spending outpacing revenues and the lack of desire
among the governor and House leaders to generate tax revenue to pay for
it could also force legislators to reconsider the foundation used to
build next year's budget just a week after the House approved a $40.4
billion spending plan.
Revenue
Commissioner Michael Heffernan published the latest revenue report on
Wednesday showing that collections of $2.86 billion in April -- the
largest single revenue month of the year -- fell $241 million short of
projections. Tax revenues were down $83 million, or 2.8 percent compared
to April 2016.
While
the fiscal 2017 budget assumes revenue growth of 3.1 percent for the
year, so far through April the state has experienced just 1.1 percent
growth in taxes. Next year's budget is being built on an assumption of
3.9 percent growth.
"These
results make it unlikely that the Commonwealth will meet its FY17
revenue target with less than 20 percent of expected collections
remaining in the final two months in the fiscal year, and we will also
need to take a look at FY18 projections," Heffernan said in a statement.
The
latest data marks a continuation of a long-running pattern in which
Beacon Hill officials have overestimated the amount of tax revenue they
can expect from taxpayers.
The
administration and legislative leaders were hoping to see a rebound in
April. "I keep on awaiting those months where I'm hoping that we're
going to see some uptick and it's been quite a while since we've seen
that, so I'm waiting anxiously," DeLeo told the News Service before the
numbers were released.
Instead, the revenue gap for the year more than doubled to $462 million, from $220 million through March.
Tax
returns with payments to the state in April performed the weakest,
falling $279 million under benchmark, but the administration said at
least 70,000 paper returns and possibly more had yet to be opened and
would be processed within the coming week.
A
spokeswoman for the Department of Revenue said the processing of paper
returns has been slower this year due to new systems, but could not
immediately put a number on the amount of unopened returns that could
include payments to the state.
Despite
the relative strength of the economy and low unemployment, the rebound
from the last recession at the turn of the decade has not translated
into strong revenue growth under a tax code that has not undergone major
changes in recent years.
In April, sales and corporate taxes as well as estimated payments and payments with returns all came in lower than expected.
Overly
optimistic revenue estimates have forced Gov. Baker and the
Democrat-controlled Legislature to frequently revisit their spending
plans and budgeting assumptions, and the problems are compounded by a
surge in spending and enrollment in the state's largest program, the
MassHealth health insurance program.
The Senate for months has been prodding
the House and Baker to considering higher taxes to boost state revenues
and pay for programs and services that senators say have long been
underfunded. To date, the House has largely sided with Baker and kept
significant tax increases off the negotiating table.
Gov.
Baker has on multiple occasions suggested that while residents are
working and paying taxes, their wages are not growing fast enough to
generate substantial growth in the tax base. Rosenberg has floated the
idea of revisiting the idea of a sales tax on services to better capture
what is happening in the economy, but that idea is deeply unpopular in
the business community.
Two
weeks ago, Baker said his administration was drafting "reasonable and
appropriate" plans to deal with the possibility that the state would
finish the year with lower-than-expected revenue, but had no intention
of tapping the state's "rainy day" fund.
Hinting
that May and June receipts won't close the gap, Heffernan on Wednesday
all but confirmed that tax collections will fall short for the fiscal
year, and the administration reemphasized that it's exploring ways to
respond to the shortfall.
"We
are carefully reviewing all options to maintain the Commonwealth's
fiscal stability,"
Administration and Finance Secretary Kristen Lepore
said in a statement.
Lepore
called the April numbers "part of a long recovery period of modest
revenue growth that the entire nation is experiencing." Her office also
produced a list of cost-saving measures the governor proposed in his fiscal 2018 budget proposal
that have yet to gain traction in the Legislature, including changes to
the way welfare benefits are calculated and caps on sick leave payouts
for retirees.
The
focus on next year's budget and Heffernan's warning that revenue
projections for fiscal 2018 will need to be reviewed created a sense of
deja vu on Beacon Hill. Last year around this time, Baker and
legislative leaders began to realize revenues were not holding up and
they scrambled for solutions after marking down their estimates of
available funds and quickly rearranging their carefully crafted spending
plans.
Just last week, the House passed a $40.4 billion budget plan for fiscal 2018, and the Senate is planning to debate its budget proposal later this month.
"The
Committee is reviewing the recently released tax collection numbers for
April. We will be assessing their impact and the need for any
additional legislative action," said Chris Bennett, a spokesman for the
House Ways and Means Committee.
Gov.
Baker visited House Speaker Robert DeLeo's office Wednesday morning for
about 25 minutes, exiting at around noon more than six hours before his
team released the tax revenue news after the building had emptied for
the evening. It's unclear if the revenue report came up during the
meeting.
"Stuff.
I can't go talk to my neighbor?" Baker said, before offering a couple
of reporters M&Ms he had taken from the speaker's office. Spokesmen
for both the governor and the speaker did not respond to follow-up
inquiries.
Income
tax collections of $2.07 billion were 11.7 percent shy of the benchmark
in April, while sales tax collections of $493 million missed the
state's target by $14 million, or 2.8 percent.
Corporate
and business tax collections exceeded projections by $49 million in a
small month for that type of tax payment with only $120 million
collected in total, and withholding payments of $962 million beat the
benchmark by 3.3 percent.
If the town gets it's State Aid cut, we will feel it big time. It has happened before and it will happen again. Bev.
ReplyDeleteCould happen any year...............This is why we have a money saved, right........Oh, I forgot I live in another spend it now, pay it later community.........oopps, no money...........Puerto Ricooooo
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